We know that the Oracle can see all things coming in the future (short of decisions not understood by the decision maker), and that she is being protected by Seraph, who is able to stand his ground against Neo himself. Given this impenetrable combination of foresight and protection, how is the Merovingian able to get to her?
Rama-Kandra gave the Merovingian the means to delete the Oracle's outer shell in exchange for Sati's safe passage into the Matrix. The Merovingian is willing to let Sati go free inside of the Matrix in exchange for the pleasure of deleting the Oracle's shell. It's a way for him to get revenge for the fact that the Oracle took the Keymaker from him. The Oracle apparently gave Rama-Kandra her shell's deletion code because of what Rama-Kandra says below about the Oracle's "promise":
| Neo: You know the Oracle? Rama-Kandra: Everyone knows the Oracle. I consulted with her before I met with the Frenchman. She promised she would look after Sati after we said goodbye. Neo: Goodbye? You’re not staying with her? Rama-Kandra: It is not possible. Our arrangement with the Frenchman was for our daughter only. My wife and I must return to our world. |
When Morpheus, Neo and Trinity go to see the Merovingian at Le Vrai ("The True") restaurant, there is a moment when Neo notices Rama-Kandra being led out of the restaurant after meeting with the Merovingian. Rama-Kandra had just got done making a deal with the Merovingian: a deal of the Oracle's deletion codes in exchange for the Merovingian's agreement to let Sati go free. When Morpheus, Trinity and Neo talk to the Merovingian right after Rama-Kandra leaves, the Merovingian says:
| Merovingian: Run back, and give the fortune teller this message: Her time is almost up. |
The Merovingian is definitely referring here to the fact that the Oracle's shell is soon about to be deleted - her time to live is almost up. But the Merovingian's words may also have a double-meaning: It could also mean that the Merovingian sees that the Matrix is very close to crashing, and that it will crash soon since Neo cannot reach the Source (Neo can't reach the Source if the Mevovingian continues to hold the Keymaker). The Merovingian would be happy to see the Oracle's Matrix model of choice totally crash. He would be the most powerful program in the Matrix if it weren't for the Oracle.
The next time we see the Oracle, she is in a different body - a different "shell" to contain her program:
| Trinity: What happened? Oracle: I made a choice, and that choice cost me more than I wanted it to. Morpheus: What choice? Oracle: To help you to guide Neo. |
From this we learn that the Oracle's choice to help guide Neo by taking the Keymaker from the Merovingian carried consequences that she couldn't see until the choice was made. The Oracle also wouldn't have been able to start planning into the future about how to obtain a new shell for herself until Neo actually chose the left door. That is why the Oracle couldn't see the full consequences of her decision until it was made (and also until Neo made his choice).
Unfortunately, the actress who played the Oracle in the first movie, Gloria Foster, died during filming of M2. The Wachowskis did a very good job at making a virtue of necessity, using this tragedy to deepen the conflict between the Merovingian and the Oracle (also giving us more understanding about how programs take human form in the Matrix). However, I still would have much preferred Gloria Foster in all three movies simply because she was so perfect for the part.
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 Merovingian: Causality |  Merovingian: Stop Neo |